Objectives: Develop ecological indicators and parameters to optimize georeferenced sampling methods and protocols, for their application in models of pests population dynamics and disease prevalence changes. Simulation of the economic outcomes of the management strategies applied and identification of the effects of main climatic and ecological drivers, for best IPM planning.
Task 7.1 Measuring and forecasting climate change effects
Task 7.2 Pests population dynamics and PD epidemiology
Deliverables
7.1 Sampling methods and protocols for EBCAs and qualitative/quantitative data on changes induced in time and under various climatic change effects (by month 25). Description: data and models for banana production in response to seasonal weather and long-term climate changes, with quantification of the influence of predictor variables on production.
7.2 Epidemiological data on banana and enset pests (by month 40). Description: Molecular toolbox and models yielding data for disease prevalence assessment, risk of spread, and likely impacts on production. Quantification of the influence of predictors on risk of spread and production impacts.